Author Archives: Chris Rawson

Rumor Roundup, Episode 4: ‘Sometimes reliable’ DigiTimes

  By Chris Rawson | May 14, 2012 - 3:30 pm | iPad
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See Editor's Note at the bottom of this post.

This past week saw appearances from all the usual suspects populating the Apple rumor mill: So-called "analysts" claiming to be able to predict Apple's fortunes a full three years in the future. Booming proclamations from sites claiming to have inside info on unreleased (and probably nonexistent) products. And everyone's favorite source of utterly inaccurate Apple "news": the Asian newspaper DigiTimes. Much more on them later.

Apple stock seen hitting $2,000 by the end of 2015 (AppleInsider)

Some analyst throws a dart at a wall full of numbers and claims Apple's stock price will nearly quadruple in three and a half years.

B.S. detector reading: 10/10. Forecasting the fortunes of a company like Apple more than 40 months into the future is a fool's game, whether you're predicting unprecedented growth or unparalleled DOOOOOOOM. And besides, prevailing "wisdom" among all the other analysts says Apple will be out of business by the end of 2013 anyway, right? Because Apple's "free ride" is over, and either Microsoft or Google is going to take back the keys to the tech kingdom for reasons never adequately, logically, or even sanely explained?

GOOGLE AIN'T PLAYING: Will Clone A Key iPhone Feature (Business Insider)

GOOGLE'S GOING TO COPY IOS GAME CENTER, at least according to Business Insider. The feature would improve the gaming experience for all seven games available on the Android platform.

B.S. detector reading: 3/10. And the only reason it's even that high is because this is coming from Business Insider. From any other source, this would merit a 0/10 reading, because honestly, anyone who points to a feature in iOS and says "Google will copy that" is going to be right eventually, assuming Samsung doesn't beat them to it. (Cue the Android loyalists grousing about Notification Center in iOS 5 "ripping off" the notifications in Google's mobile OS.)

Our Source Has Seen The Apple HDTV, Here's What It Looks Like (Cult of Mac)

"Sources" claim to have seen the HDTV of myths and legends in person, then go on to parrot every single rumor we've heard about the device over the past year, bringing essentially nothing new to the table. But hey, Cult of Mac has some Photoshopped mockups to go with it, so it must be true!

B.S. detector reading: 8/10. Even if Apple is making an HDTV -- something that is a matter of ongoing discussion amongst the TUAW team, but that I personally rate as only slightly more likely than the Earth spontaneously exploding when I type the end of this sentence -- the handful of Apple employees who actually would have seen a prototype aren't all that likely to be leaking those impressions to their blogger buddies. Maybe someone saw something that looked like a new Cinema Display... and maybe what they saw actually was a new Cinema Display.

Foxconn plans renewed shift into distribution (China Daily)

At the end of a yawn-inducing article about Foxconn's business plans, included almost as an afterthought, are three brief paragraphs claiming Foxconn's chief spilled the beans on the supposedly forthcoming Apple HDTV. He allegedly confirmed that Foxconn is preparing to build the as-yet still mythical device.

B.S. detector reading: 10/10. Yeah, I'm sure that a company that's already on thin ice with Apple is going to go blabbing to the public about unreleased and unannounced products. That's exactly how you retain a business relationship with a company possessed of a legendary obsession with secrecy. Why not risk losing a manufacturing contract worth billions of dollars in order to give a BREAKING EXCLUSIVE RUMOR to China Daily.

Fortune's Philip Elmer-DeWitt does a good job of dissecting this one, calling it a "soufflé" of a story -- meaning you kick it once or twice and it collapses in on itself.

Apple rumored to be in talks to acquire German HDTV maker Loewe (AppleInsider)

"Sources" claimed Apple was going to buy a German TV company. Only one thing that could mean, right? Right?!

B.S. detector reading: 9/10. Loewe itself said there was "absolutely nothing to" the rumor. Looks like AppleInsider got punk'd. You had to figure something like this would happen once Ashton Kutcher started dressing up like Steve Jobs. Extra credit to you-can't-spell-B.S.-without Business Insider, which managed to wring three or four items out of the Loewe buyout rumor before it was denied and demolished.

Unreleased 2012 MacBook Pro and iMac Models Showing Up in Benchmarks (MacRumors)

For a change of pace, MacRumors sources from somewhere other than DigiTimes. This time, benchmarks popping up on Geekbench show numbers coming in from unreleased, presumably forthcoming MacBook Pros and iMacs.

MR also points this morning to a 9to5Mac story citing Retina displays, USB 3.0, no Ethernet port and a sleeker but not quite Air-esque design for the anticipated pro laptop refresh. Among the presented evidence are strings referencing USB 3 in the recent 10.7.4 update and in betas of 10.8 Mountain Lion; the inclusion of USB 3 (which is natively supported in Intel's Ivy Bridge architecture) means that an external Ethernet dongle could support gigabit speeds rather than the 100 mbit limit of the current MacBook Air Ethernet adapter.

B.S. detector reading: 3/10 on average. These kind of "leaks" have happened before, and not just with Macs; unreleased iPhones and iPads have popped up on Geekbench before, too. While MacRumors itself notes these results are easy to fake, they're also consistent with the performance gains expected from Intel's Ivy Bridge architecture. The 9to5 report includes a lot of speculation around the industrial design of the next laptop line, but most of the onboard features mentioned are of a piece with the direction Apple has been heading with the Pro line.

Reported AppleCare training points to June Mountain Lion launch (AppleInsider)

"Unnamed sources familiar with the matter" claim AppleCare's Europe, Middle East, and Africa division is hiring and training new people. Somehow, for some reason, that apparently means the next version of OS X will launch in June.

B.S. detector reading: 8/10. Even assuming the source is correct and AppleCare EMEA is hiring new people, that could mean just about anything. And no reputable source I know of has pointed to a Mountain Lion launch any earlier than July, probably even later than that.

iPhone 5 design still not finalized, still no big screen, still no metal back, still on track for October release (iMore)

iMore contradicts every other site out there by saying pretty much every rumor about the iPhone is complete bunk. No 4-inch screen, no metal backside, no booze, no women, and absolutely No Stairway. Denied.

B.S. detector reading: 7/10. iMore and its sources seem to be leaning toward a theory I've had for awhile: Despite a mountain of increasingly disreputable rumors to the contrary, the next iPhone probably isn't going to look significantly different from the iPhone 4S.

That having been said, even if I agree with iMore that doesn't mean I trust the site's unnamed source, particularly over the claim that the iPhone's design hasn't been finalized yet. If the device will indeed launch in October, it seems very unlikely that the hardware design is still in flux.

'iPhone 5' Headphone Jack and Earpiece Component Surfaces (MacRumors)

The same source that gave us classic hits like "slightly different Home button" and "barely changed micro-SIM tray" brings us its latest chart-topping iPhone part: weirdly altered headphone jack cable.

B.S. detector reading: 7/10. At this point, three different parts leaks from the same source is looking like a simplistic con to draw attention to the site's parts reselling business. This newest "leak" is a bit on the outlandish side, as the supposed new cable looks like an absolute mess next to the cable in the iPhone 4S.

7-inch iPad on track for October 2012 release, $200 to $250 price (iMore)

The 7-inch iPad will supposedly launch in October, featuring a screen the same 2048 x 1536 resolution as the current iPad (3). It'll have an 8 GB capacity and start at $200 -- the same price as the current 8 GB iPod touch.

B.S. detector reading: 10/10. A product that's been rumored but never seen for almost two years, the "iPad mini" would serve no other purpose than to cannibalise the existing iPad line. Even if you assume that making a 2048 x 1536 7-inch screen is technically feasible, saying Apple could sell such a device for the current asking price of the iPod touch is downright laughable.

The iPad mini already exists. It's called an iPod touch. Those who claim Apple wants to address the mid-sized market the Kindle Fire took by storm in late 2011 seem to be conveniently ignoring the fact that Kindle Fire sales went down the tubes in early 2012.

As for a lower-priced option to address budget-minded consumers, that already exists too. It's called an iPad 2. Maybe you've heard of it. It's just like the new iPad, only it's $100 cheaper and its screen looks like it's been smeared with Vaseline when you put it next to the new iPad.

Report Claims 7-Inch iPad in August, New iPhone in September, New 10-Inch iPad by End of Year (MacRumors)

DigiTimes claims blah blah blah yadda yadda. I'd tell you more, but I immediately stopped reading when I saw the word "DigiTimes."

B.S. detector reading: Off-scale high due to use of DigiTimes as a source. On the subject of the 7-inch iPad itself, I remember the first time I heard of this still-fictitious device: an August 2010 "report" from iLounge, complete with Photoshop mockup of course. Let's look at the claims from that long-ago report:

  1. New iPod nano, new iPod touch, 1.7" touchscreen replacement for iPod shuffle, and a shrunken 3" touchscreen for the iPod touch. Partial credit for predicting a new iPod nano, but credit taken away for not realizing it was the same thing as the touchscreen "replacement" for the shuffle (which still lives on). Partial credit for predicting a new iPod touch, but credit taken away for the spurious shrunken screen rumor. Total points awarded: 0.
  2. A 7" iPad in late 2010 or early 2011. Nope. Didn't happen.
  3. Fifth-generation iPhone release bumped up to early 2011. Nope.
  4. Silicone-only iPhone bumpers. Nope.

So, the first time we heard of the 7" iPad, it was included in a rumor blitz from iLounge where the vast majority of the rumored items never came true. In nearly two years since then, the "iPad mini" is still nowhere to be found, and most of the subsequent rumors about it have come from either from DigiTimes or "analysts" with no more clue about Apple's plans than my cat.

I'm sure Apple has been technologically capable of making an iPad mini for years. All the company lacks is the poor business sense to actually release one.

Rumor: Apple planning to launch $799 MacBook Air in Q3 2012 (AppleInsider)

Apple plans to "aggressively combat" ultrabooks -- that special category of notebook that PC makers dreamed up specifically so they could try to copy the MacBook Air -- by, um... selling a budget-priced MacBook Air. Because as anyone who's followed Apple for the past 15 years knows, that is totally something Apple would do. (ALERT: Sarcasm approaching critical mass!) And the source of this report is, of course, "sometimes reliable DigiTimes."

Those are AppleInsider's words, not mine. I've tried to find a more appropriate adjective for DigiTimes than "sometimes reliable," but so far all I've come up with is "standup philosophers DigiTimes." (Video NSFW if your boss is uncomfortable with one of the Golden Girls repeatedly saying something that rhymes with bullspit.)

B.S. detector reading: Once again, off-scale high due to use of DigiTimes as a source.

Apple rumor sites, it's time for an intervention.

DigiTimes is the scourge of the Apple rumor scene. It's been funny to watch sites like MacRumors, AppleInsider, BGR, and 9to5 Mac take DigiTimes less and less seriously over the years as the site's record has gotten worse and worse. These sites still breathlessly report every last bit of information effluent that drips out of DigiTimes' rumor sewers, but the way they refer to DigiTimes has shifted over time.

It started with "DigiTimes has given reliable information before," then shifted to "DigiTimes has been reliable in the past." Then it became "DigiTimes has been hit-or-miss lately," then "occasionally reliable." Now we've reached the point of "sometimes reliable DigiTimes."

What's next? "Archaeologically reliable" DigiTimes? "Fossil records indicate DigiTimes provided reliable information during the Cretaceous, prior to the asteroid impact that wiped out the dinosaurs and the site's legitimacy."

I decided to find out just how "reliable" DigiTimes has been. My study was thoroughly unscientific, though still performed with far more rigor than anything that's come from that site. I simply did a "site:www.macrumors.com digitimes" search on Google and went through the first 7 or 8 pages of articles I found. MacRumors posts a story pretty much every time someone at DigiTimes mutters something that vaguely sounds like "Apple," so this seemed like a good way to get some traction.

I didn't rate rumors produced in the past two months -- I figure I'll give DigiTimes more time to be wrong -- so I started with rumors in early March of 2012, then worked backward.

Here's a rundown of the true or at least partially true reports MacRumors has printed in the past few years with DigiTimes as a source.

  1. iPad 3 Display Supply Constraints to Result in Early Shortages? (March 2012: 100% true)
  2. Display Panel Shipment Plans Suggest Apple Will Offer iPad 2 Alongside iPad 3 (January 2012: 100% true)
  3. iPad 3 Display Shipments Nearing 3 Million Units with Assembly Set for January Start (November 2011: Mostly true, but mentions B.S. about a 7-inch iPad)
  4. Apple LTE-enabled iPhone Due in 2012, iPhone 4S Preparations for September 2011 (May 2011: Mostly true, and remarkably, one of the first sites to correctly refer to it as the iPhone 4S rather than iPhone 5)
  5. iMac and MacBook Pro Upgrades in First Half of 2011? (December 2010: 100% true, but talk about your all-time easy calls)
  6. Cortex A9-Based iPads, Verizon iPhone, iOS-Based Apple TV Set for 1Q 2011 Launch? (August 2010: 2/3 true. They got the CPU and launch date for the Apple TV wrong, and mentioned some 7-inch iPad B.S.)
  7. DigiTimes Claims Display Improvements in Next-Gen iPhone (May 2010: 100% true, but multiple sources were claiming the same thing)
  8. Next-Generation iPhone Set to Carry 5-Megapixel Camera? (December 2009: 100% true)

So that's roughly 7 2/3 stories in the past few years. Not a bad record... until you look at all the things DigiTimes has said over the years that have been, as the kids in the UK say, utter bollocks. And this is far from a comprehensive list. I only made it through the first several pages of a Google search before I had to step away from my Mac and find a martini to chase the stupid away.

  1. 8 GB iPad 2 Coming Alongside 16 GB and 32 GB iPad 3 Next Week? (February 2012)
  2. Intel Delaying Mass Availability of Ivy Bridge Processors Until 'After June'? (February 2012)
  3. 'iPad 4' Headed for October Launch with iPad 3 as Interim Upgrade? (January 2012)
  4. Pegatron to Become Apple's Primary iPad Manufacturing Partner? (January 2012)
  5. Apple to Use IGZO Displays to Achieve a Thinner Lower-Power iPad 3? (December 2011)
  6. Mid-Range and High-End iPad 3 Launching at iWorld Seems Unlikely (December 2011)
  7. Thunderbolt Coming to PCs in April 2012 (December 2011)
  8. Rumors of a 7.85-Inch 'iPad Mini' Revived (Again) for Late 2012 (December 2011)
  9. Suppliers to Begin Preparing 32" and 37" Apple Television Sets in Early 2012? ((December 2011)
  10. Updated MacBook Air Line with New 15-Inch Model Coming in 1Q 2012? (November 2011)
  11. Apple Cutting Fourth Quarter iPhone Component Orders? (November 2011)
  12. Apple's 15" Ultra-Thin Notebook Due in March 2012 (November 2011)
  13. Next iPad Coming March, But "Real iPad 3" Not Until Q3 2012? (November 2011)
  14. iPhone 5 with Metal Chassis and Less Than 4" Screen? (August 2011)
  15. Apple Increasing iPhone Production with iPhone 5 Ramp-Up (August 2011: This one is especially laughable, as DigiTimes' predicted iPhone sales figures were off by more than ten million units)
  16. Apple Orders 15 Million iPhone 5s, Shipping Begins in September (July 2011)
  17. iPhone 5 to Have a Dual LED Flash? (June 2011)
  18. Apple Ramping Up New MacBook Air Production in July (June 2011: DigiTimes's claim of 8 million MacBook Air units was only off by, oh, 5 or 6 million)
  19. iPhone 5 to Use a 4-Inch Screen? (February 2011)
  20. 5.6-Inch and 7-Inch OLED iPad Models Coming in Q4 2010? (July 2010)
  21. Touch Panels for Apple Netbook Ordered? (July 2009)
  22. And one from the vaults: DigiTimes Reports PowerBook G5 and iBook G5 Contracts (January 2005)

For every one report DigiTimes gets right, you get almost three more that are complete garbage. "Reliable" and "DigiTimes" are essentially antonyms at this point, and any site that still regularly relies on them as a source has absolutely no credibility.

That's it for this week's rumors. Next week, we'll find out the 7-inch iPad mini was actually released long ago... it was inside our hearts all along.

Editor's Note: Just as this post went live, we spotted Harry McCracken's thorough processing of DigiTimes's track record on rumors. Chris's deep dive into the past outcomes of DigiTimes reporting at the end of this post is similar by coincidence, not by design.

Rumor Roundup, Episode 4: 'Sometimes reliable' DigiTimes originally appeared on TUAW - The Unofficial Apple Weblog on Mon, 14 May 2012 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Rumor Roundup, Episode 4: ‘Sometimes reliable’ DigiTimes (Updated)

  By Chris Rawson | May 14, 2012 - 3:30 pm | iPad
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See Editor's Note at the bottom of this post.

This past week saw appearances from all the usual suspects populating the Apple rumor mill: So-called "analysts" claiming to be able to predict Apple's fortunes a full three years in the future. Booming proclamations from sites claiming to have inside info on unreleased (and probably nonexistent) products. And everyone's favorite source of utterly inaccurate Apple "news": the Asian newspaper DigiTimes. Much more on them later.

Apple stock seen hitting $2,000 by the end of 2015 (AppleInsider)

Some analyst throws a dart at a wall full of numbers and claims Apple's stock price will nearly quadruple in three and a half years.

B.S. detector reading: 10/10. Forecasting the fortunes of a company like Apple more than 40 months into the future is a fool's game, whether you're predicting unprecedented growth or unparalleled DOOOOOOOM. And besides, prevailing "wisdom" among all the other analysts says Apple will be out of business by the end of 2013 anyway, right? Because Apple's "free ride" is over, and either Microsoft or Google is going to take back the keys to the tech kingdom for reasons never adequately, logically, or even sanely explained?

GOOGLE AIN'T PLAYING: Will Clone A Key iPhone Feature (Business Insider)

GOOGLE'S GOING TO COPY IOS GAME CENTER, at least according to Business Insider. The feature would improve the gaming experience for all seven games available on the Android platform.

B.S. detector reading: 3/10. And the only reason it's even that high is because this is coming from Business Insider. From any other source, this would merit a 0/10 reading, because honestly, anyone who points to a feature in iOS and says "Google will copy that" is going to be right eventually, assuming Samsung doesn't beat them to it. (Cue the Android loyalists grousing about Notification Center in iOS 5 "ripping off" the notifications in Google's mobile OS.)

Our Source Has Seen The Apple HDTV, Here's What It Looks Like (Cult of Mac)

"Sources" claim to have seen the HDTV of myths and legends in person, then go on to parrot every single rumor we've heard about the device over the past year, bringing essentially nothing new to the table. But hey, Cult of Mac has some Photoshopped mockups to go with it, so it must be true!

B.S. detector reading: 8/10. Even if Apple is making an HDTV -- something that is a matter of ongoing discussion amongst the TUAW team, but that I personally rate as only slightly more likely than the Earth spontaneously exploding when I type the end of this sentence -- the handful of Apple employees who actually would have seen a prototype aren't all that likely to be leaking those impressions to their blogger buddies. Maybe someone saw something that looked like a new Cinema Display... and maybe what they saw actually was a new Cinema Display.

Foxconn plans renewed shift into distribution (China Daily)

At the end of a yawn-inducing article about Foxconn's business plans, included almost as an afterthought, are three brief paragraphs claiming Foxconn's chief spilled the beans on the supposedly forthcoming Apple HDTV. He allegedly confirmed that Foxconn is preparing to build the as-yet still mythical device.

B.S. detector reading: 10/10. Yeah, I'm sure that a company that's already on thin ice with Apple is going to go blabbing to the public about unreleased and unannounced products. That's exactly how you retain a business relationship with a company possessed of a legendary obsession with secrecy. Why not risk losing a manufacturing contract worth billions of dollars in order to give a BREAKING EXCLUSIVE RUMOR to China Daily.

Fortune's Philip Elmer-DeWitt does a good job of dissecting this one, calling it a "soufflé" of a story -- meaning you kick it once or twice and it collapses in on itself.

Apple rumored to be in talks to acquire German HDTV maker Loewe (AppleInsider)

"Sources" claimed Apple was going to buy a German TV company. Only one thing that could mean, right? Right?!

B.S. detector reading: 9/10. Loewe itself said there was "absolutely nothing to" the rumor. Looks like AppleInsider got punk'd. You had to figure something like this would happen once Ashton Kutcher started dressing up like Steve Jobs. Extra credit to you-can't-spell-B.S.-without Business Insider, which managed to wring three or four items out of the Loewe buyout rumor before it was denied and demolished.

Unreleased 2012 MacBook Pro and iMac Models Showing Up in Benchmarks (MacRumors)

For a change of pace, MacRumors sources from somewhere other than DigiTimes. This time, benchmarks popping up on Geekbench show numbers coming in from unreleased, presumably forthcoming MacBook Pros and iMacs.

MR also points this morning to a 9to5Mac story citing Retina displays, USB 3.0, no Ethernet port and a sleeker but not quite Air-esque design for the anticipated pro laptop refresh. Among the presented evidence are strings referencing USB 3 in the recent 10.7.4 update and in betas of 10.8 Mountain Lion; the inclusion of USB 3 (which is natively supported in Intel's Ivy Bridge architecture) means that an external Ethernet dongle could support gigabit speeds rather than the 100 mbit limit of the current MacBook Air Ethernet adapter.

B.S. detector reading: 3/10 on average. These kind of "leaks" have happened before, and not just with Macs; unreleased iPhones and iPads have popped up on Geekbench before, too. While MacRumors itself notes these results are easy to fake, they're also consistent with the performance gains expected from Intel's Ivy Bridge architecture. The 9to5 report includes a lot of speculation around the industrial design of the next laptop line, but most of the onboard features mentioned are of a piece with the direction Apple has been heading with the Pro line.

Reported AppleCare training points to June Mountain Lion launch (AppleInsider)

"Unnamed sources familiar with the matter" claim AppleCare's Europe, Middle East, and Africa division is hiring and training new people. Somehow, for some reason, that apparently means the next version of OS X will launch in June.

B.S. detector reading: 8/10. Even assuming the source is correct and AppleCare EMEA is hiring new people, that could mean just about anything. And no reputable source I know of has pointed to a Mountain Lion launch any earlier than July, probably even later than that.

iPhone 5 design still not finalized, still no big screen, still no metal back, still on track for October release (iMore)

iMore contradicts every other site out there by saying pretty much every rumor about the iPhone is complete bunk. No 4-inch screen, no metal backside, no booze, no women, and absolutely No Stairway. Denied.

B.S. detector reading: 7/10. iMore and its sources seem to be leaning toward a theory I've had for awhile: Despite a mountain of increasingly disreputable rumors to the contrary, the next iPhone probably isn't going to look significantly different from the iPhone 4S.

That having been said, even if I agree with iMore that doesn't mean I trust the site's unnamed source, particularly over the claim that the iPhone's design hasn't been finalized yet. If the device will indeed launch in October, it seems very unlikely that the hardware design is still in flux.

'iPhone 5' Headphone Jack and Earpiece Component Surfaces (MacRumors)

The same source that gave us classic hits like "slightly different Home button" and "barely changed micro-SIM tray" brings us its latest chart-topping iPhone part: weirdly altered headphone jack cable.

B.S. detector reading: 7/10. At this point, three different parts leaks from the same source is looking like a simplistic con to draw attention to the site's parts reselling business. This newest "leak" is a bit on the outlandish side, as the supposed new cable looks like an absolute mess next to the cable in the iPhone 4S.

7-inch iPad on track for October 2012 release, $200 to $250 price (iMore)

The 7-inch iPad will supposedly launch in October, featuring a screen the same 2048 x 1536 resolution as the current iPad (3). It'll have an 8 GB capacity and start at $200 -- the same price as the current 8 GB iPod touch.

B.S. detector reading: 10/10* (or 5/10 -- See note below). A product that's been rumored but never seen for almost two years, the "iPad mini" would serve no other purpose than to cannibalise the existing iPad line. Even if you assume that making a 2048 x 1536 7-inch screen is technically feasible, saying Apple could sell such a device for the current asking price of the iPod touch is downright laughable.

The iPad mini already exists. It's called an iPod touch. Those who claim Apple wants to address the mid-sized market the Kindle Fire took by storm in late 2011 seem to be conveniently ignoring the fact that Kindle Fire sales went down the tubes in early 2012.

As for a lower-priced option to address budget-minded consumers, that already exists too. It's called an iPad 2. Maybe you've heard of it. It's just like the new iPad, only it's $100 cheaper and its screen looks like it's been smeared with Vaseline when you put it next to the new iPad.

*Editor's Note: After some consideration I'm disagreeing with Chris on this one and saying there's some chance of a 7-inch iPad. Why? The Nook/Kindle form factor has proven it has a market, and if Apple had a product in-between the touch and the iPad, it would obliterate Android in that category not unlike how the iPod soared to the top of the MP3 market. As an entry-level "halo effect" device on the cheap, such a tablet need not be called an iPad, even. - Victor Agreda, Jr.

Report Claims 7-Inch iPad in August, New iPhone in September, New 10-Inch iPad by End of Year (MacRumors)

DigiTimes claims blah blah blah yadda yadda. I'd tell you more, but I immediately stopped reading when I saw the word "DigiTimes."

B.S. detector reading: Off-scale high due to use of DigiTimes as a source. On the subject of the 7-inch iPad itself, I remember the first time I heard of this still-fictitious device: an August 2010 "report" from iLounge, complete with Photoshop mockup of course. Let's look at the claims from that long-ago report:

  1. New iPod nano, new iPod touch, 1.7" touchscreen replacement for iPod shuffle, and a shrunken 3" touchscreen for the iPod touch. Partial credit for predicting a new iPod nano, but credit taken away for not realizing it was the same thing as the touchscreen "replacement" for the shuffle (which still lives on). Partial credit for predicting a new iPod touch, but credit taken away for the spurious shrunken screen rumor. Total points awarded: 0.
  2. A 7" iPad in late 2010 or early 2011. Nope. Didn't happen.
  3. Fifth-generation iPhone release bumped up to early 2011. Nope.
  4. Silicone-only iPhone bumpers. Nope.

So, the first time we heard of the 7" iPad, it was included in a rumor blitz from iLounge where the vast majority of the rumored items never came true. In nearly two years since then, the "iPad mini" is still nowhere to be found, and most of the subsequent rumors about it have come from either from DigiTimes or "analysts" with no more clue about Apple's plans than my cat.

I'm sure Apple has been technologically capable of making an iPad mini for years. All the company lacks is the poor business sense to actually release one.

Rumor: Apple planning to launch $799 MacBook Air in Q3 2012 (AppleInsider)

Apple plans to "aggressively combat" ultrabooks -- that special category of notebook that PC makers dreamed up specifically so they could try to copy the MacBook Air -- by, um... selling a budget-priced MacBook Air. Because as anyone who's followed Apple for the past 15 years knows, that is totally something Apple would do. (ALERT: Sarcasm approaching critical mass!) And the source of this report is, of course, "sometimes reliable DigiTimes."

Those are AppleInsider's words, not mine. I've tried to find a more appropriate adjective for DigiTimes than "sometimes reliable," but so far all I've come up with is "standup philosophers DigiTimes." (Video NSFW if your boss is uncomfortable with one of the Golden Girls repeatedly saying something that rhymes with bullspit.)

B.S. detector reading: Once again, off-scale high due to use of DigiTimes as a source.

Apple rumor sites, it's time for an intervention. Or, at the very least, a scorecard.

DigiTimes is the scourge of the Apple rumor scene. It's been funny to watch sites like MacRumors, AppleInsider, BGR, and 9to5 Mac take DigiTimes less and less seriously over the years as the site's record has gotten worse and worse. These sites still breathlessly report every last bit of information effluent that drips out of DigiTimes' rumor sewers, but the way they refer to DigiTimes has shifted over time.

It started with "DigiTimes has given reliable information before," then shifted to "DigiTimes has been reliable in the past." Then it became "DigiTimes has been hit-or-miss lately," then "occasionally reliable." Now we've reached the point of "sometimes reliable DigiTimes."

What's next? "Archaeologically reliable" DigiTimes? "Fossil records indicate DigiTimes provided reliable information during the Cretaceous, prior to the asteroid impact that wiped out the dinosaurs and the site's legitimacy."

I decided to find out just how "reliable" DigiTimes has been. My study was thoroughly unscientific, though still performed with far more rigor than anything that's come from that site. I simply did a "site:www.macrumors.com digitimes" search on Google and went through the first 7 or 8 pages of articles I found. MacRumors posts a story pretty much every time someone at DigiTimes mutters something that vaguely sounds like "Apple," so this seemed like a good way to get some traction.

I didn't rate rumors produced in the past two months -- I figure I'll give DigiTimes more time to be wrong -- so I started with rumors in early March of 2012, then worked backward.

Here's a rundown of the true or at least partially true reports MacRumors has printed in the past few years with DigiTimes as a source.

  1. iPad 3 Display Supply Constraints to Result in Early Shortages? (March 2012: 100% true)
  2. Display Panel Shipment Plans Suggest Apple Will Offer iPad 2 Alongside iPad 3 (January 2012: 100% true)
  3. iPad 3 Display Shipments Nearing 3 Million Units with Assembly Set for January Start (November 2011: Mostly true, but mentions B.S. about a 7-inch iPad)
  4. Apple LTE-enabled iPhone Due in 2012, iPhone 4S Preparations for September 2011 (May 2011: Mostly true, and remarkably, one of the first sites to correctly refer to it as the iPhone 4S rather than iPhone 5)
  5. iMac and MacBook Pro Upgrades in First Half of 2011? (December 2010: 100% true, but talk about your all-time easy calls)
  6. Cortex A9-Based iPads, Verizon iPhone, iOS-Based Apple TV Set for 1Q 2011 Launch? (August 2010: 2/3 true. They got the CPU and launch date for the Apple TV wrong, and mentioned some 7-inch iPad B.S.)
  7. DigiTimes Claims Display Improvements in Next-Gen iPhone (May 2010: 100% true, but multiple sources were claiming the same thing)
  8. Next-Generation iPhone Set to Carry 5-Megapixel Camera? (December 2009: 100% true)

So that's roughly 7 2/3 stories in the past few years. Not a bad record... until you look at all the things DigiTimes has said over the years that have been, as the kids in the UK say, utter bollocks. And this is far from a comprehensive list. I only made it through the first several pages of a Google search before I had to step away from my Mac and find a martini to chase the stupid away.

  1. 8 GB iPad 2 Coming Alongside 16 GB and 32 GB iPad 3 Next Week? (February 2012)
  2. Intel Delaying Mass Availability of Ivy Bridge Processors Until 'After June'? (February 2012)
  3. 'iPad 4' Headed for October Launch with iPad 3 as Interim Upgrade? (January 2012)
  4. Pegatron to Become Apple's Primary iPad Manufacturing Partner? (January 2012)
  5. Apple to Use IGZO Displays to Achieve a Thinner Lower-Power iPad 3? (December 2011)
  6. Mid-Range and High-End iPad 3 Launching at iWorld Seems Unlikely (December 2011)
  7. Thunderbolt Coming to PCs in April 2012 (December 2011)
  8. Rumors of a 7.85-Inch 'iPad Mini' Revived (Again) for Late 2012 (December 2011)
  9. Suppliers to Begin Preparing 32" and 37" Apple Television Sets in Early 2012? ((December 2011)
  10. Updated MacBook Air Line with New 15-Inch Model Coming in 1Q 2012? (November 2011)
  11. Apple Cutting Fourth Quarter iPhone Component Orders? (November 2011)
  12. Apple's 15" Ultra-Thin Notebook Due in March 2012 (November 2011)
  13. Next iPad Coming March, But "Real iPad 3" Not Until Q3 2012? (November 2011)
  14. iPhone 5 with Metal Chassis and Less Than 4" Screen? (August 2011)
  15. Apple Increasing iPhone Production with iPhone 5 Ramp-Up (August 2011: This one is especially laughable, as DigiTimes' predicted iPhone sales figures were off by more than ten million units)
  16. Apple Orders 15 Million iPhone 5s, Shipping Begins in September (July 2011)
  17. iPhone 5 to Have a Dual LED Flash? (June 2011)
  18. Apple Ramping Up New MacBook Air Production in July (June 2011: DigiTimes's claim of 8 million MacBook Air units was only off by, oh, 5 or 6 million)
  19. iPhone 5 to Use a 4-Inch Screen? (February 2011)
  20. 5.6-Inch and 7-Inch OLED iPad Models Coming in Q4 2010? (July 2010)
  21. Touch Panels for Apple Netbook Ordered? (July 2009)
  22. And one from the vaults: DigiTimes Reports PowerBook G5 and iBook G5 Contracts (January 2005)

For every one report DigiTimes gets right, you get almost three more that are complete garbage. "Reliable" and "DigiTimes" are essentially antonyms at this point, and any site that still regularly relies on them as a source has absolutely no credibility.

That's it for this week's rumors. Next week, we'll find out the 7-inch iPad mini was actually released long ago... it was inside our hearts all along.

Editor's Note: Just as this post went live, we spotted Harry McCracken's thorough processing of DigiTimes's track record on rumors. Chris's deep dive into the past outcomes of DigiTimes reporting at the end of this post is similar by coincidence, not by design.

Rumor Roundup, Episode 4: 'Sometimes reliable' DigiTimes (Updated) originally appeared on TUAW - The Unofficial Apple Weblog on Mon, 14 May 2012 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Rumor Roundup, Episode 3: Your parts are leaking again

  By Chris Rawson | May 7, 2012 - 1:30 pm | Uncategorized
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As expected, last week was a slow one for actual Apple news. Equally as expected, rumors of increasingly dubious parentage were shoehorned into various sites' RSS feeds to pad out the news cycle. In the old days this kind of "news" might have been used to line the bottoms of bird cages, but today all anyone does with birds is launch them at pigs with a slingshot.

Claimed iPhone 5 SIM Card Tray Appears Identical to iPhone 4S (MacRumors)

Just when you thought iPhone parts leaks couldn't get more yawn-inducing than slightly different Home buttons, MacRumors lets us know that parts supplier SW-BOX.com supposedly got its hands on some "iPhone 5" SIM trays. These new SIM trays are almost identical to those in the iPhone 4 and 4S, suggesting the next iPhone won't be much different in design.

WhooOOOOoooo! Tk, tk, tk. That was the sound of the wind blowing through a ghost town and a tumbleweed blowing by.

B.S. detector reading: 9/10. Parts supplier no one's heard of? Check. Parts "leaking" to the public over five months away from the time the next iPhone's likely to launch? Check. This rumor isn't just clutching at straws, it's dreaming about clutching at straws.

Liquidmetal Inventor: Apple Will Use It In A 'Breakthrough Product' (Business Insider)

Business Insider takes a break from its usual schtick of behaving like the National Enquirer of the tech world and does an actual interview with a verifiable human being. If you're at all familiar with Business Insider's usual attitude toward all things Apple, you're probably as confused as I was. Anyway, some guy named Atakan Peker claims Apple is a long way off from using Liquidmetal in large scale deployment on any of its products.

B.S. detector reading: 0/10. Peker ought to know a little bit about how well Liquidmetal can scale, because he helped invent the stuff. He thinks it will take three to five years and hundreds of millions of dollars in investments and R&D before Liquidmetal can be widely deployed.

All this means is for the next couple years, any rumor that proclaims "all-Liquidmetal iPhone is coming out soon" is going to max out the B.S. detector.

Yes, Apple is still working on haptics for touch devices (9to5 Mac)

Remember how the night before the newest iPad launched, the internet went bananas for a few hours and thought the device would debut with haptic feedback? Remember how, predictably, that didn't happen? Oh, how we laughed. It was a simpler time. But 9to5 Mac is certain that recently unearthed patents mean Apple is still on the Haptic Trail. Would you like to ford Speculation River, or caulk the iPad and float it across?

B.S. detector reading: 8/10. I've been following Apple long enough to know that more than half the stuff it patents never shows up on store shelves. Apple may still be considering implementing such functionality in future devices... or it may have decided to abandon that route and go a different way. A patent doesn't offer proof of either decision.

Apple's 'iTV' might not launch until 2014 (BGR)

An analyst from JP Morgan spins the Wheel of Fortune and decides the Apple HDTV isn't coming until 2014. I'd like to solve the puzzle: "Making it up as I go."

B.S. detector reading: 7/10 -- and it's only that low because I agree the "iTV" probably isn't coming before 2014. But I only say that because, for reasons I discussed last week, I don't believe Apple is ever launching its own HDTV.

Having recently gone through the head-spinning and utterly confounding experience of buying a new HDTV myself, I agree it's an industry ripe for disruption. But I'm also more convinced than ever that it's an industry Apple's better off leaving to the other suckers. Let Samsung, Sony, LG, Panasonic, and the rest of them slug it out over who gets to sell TVs to people who are just looking for the cheapest way to watch Game of Thrones without having to squint to tell the difference between Gruff Old Knight No. 4 and Gruff Old Knight No. 7.

Apple television not expected to 'break the bundle' from cable (AppleInsider)

AppleInsider looked at the same JP Morgan analyst's thoughts on the proposed Apple HDTV and focused on his remarks regarding the "disruption" the device might bring to the industry. The headline kind of spoils it; JP Morgan's analysts don't think wild-eyed claims that the Apple HDTV will finally save us from the tyranny of cable providers hold much water.

B.S. detector reading: 5/10. The film, TV, and cable industries saw what happened to the music industry in the last decade -- Apple slowly upended the entire market and now holds almost unprecedented influence over how people buy and listen to music. Cable companies will do absolutely anything they can to stop that from happening to them -- no matter how many of their customers they tick off in the process -- so an iTunes-centric HDTV is probably going to send content owners scrambling to divorce themselves from Apple as quickly as they can.

I'm pretty sure the only reason these media companies even tolerate the likes of the current Apple TV box is that it's a relatively low seller, a tiny blip in the marketplace. If Apple launches what amounts to the iPhone of HDTVs, expect those same companies to "turn traitor" before Tim Cook leaves the keynote stage.

The New iPhone: Size, Screen + New Connector (Plus iPod touch) (iLounge)

The next iPhone will supposedly have a 4" screen and will be about 10 millimeters taller and 2 millimeters thinner. (That popping sound you heard just now was someone having an aneurysm from me mixing Imperial and metric units in one sentence.) The dock connector will allegedly be a redesigned, smaller port.

B.S. detector reading: 7/10. Lots of sites re-reported iLounge's crystal ball gazing like it was brought down from the summit of Mount Sinai, simply because some of iLounge's past guesses have been accurate in the past. All this iLounge post really did, though, was collect several months worth of rumors in one spot and slap some halfway-decently Photoshopped pics on it.

You know what I think would be absolutely hilarious? If the next iPhone looks exactly the same as the last two. Same screen size, same form factor, just with a slightly faster CPU/GPU. Apple is already selling around 4.5 iPhones every second (not an exaggeration), but still everyone seems convinced the company needs to do some radical redesign if it wants to stay ahead of its competitors. I'm pretty sure the "disappointing" sales of the iPhone 4S and iPad (3) are proof enough that Apple no longer needs to change things just for the sake of changing them -- if it ever did.

Apple expected to expand store-within-store presence at Walmart, Target (AppleInsider)

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster walked through an Apple "mini-store" at a Target. After browsing the shelves and chatting with a Target salesperson, he somehow became convinced Apple will widely deploy these mini-stores in both Target and Walmart locations across the United States.

B.S. detector reading: 5/10. I'll give Munster credit for actually doing some on-scene investigating (that's how I used to refer to my Target shopping trips, anyway). But it's pretty much equivalent to me eating at my local Burger Fuel and saying, "Man, the Bastard Burger sure is tasty. You know who'd love this thing? Drunk college kids. Headline: Burger Fuel to expand from New Zealand to Ivy League colleges across the northeastern US."

iPad tablet market share will dip to 50% by 2017, study says (AppleInsider)

NPD claims the iPad will account for only half the tablet market five years from now. As evidence, NPD researchers waved their hands over a pile of gnawed chicken drumsticks scattered on the NPD's throne room floor and proclaimed, "THE BONES HAVE SPOKEN."

B.S. detector reading: 10/10. This survey is even worse than one I saw last week, which claimed essentially the same thing would happen in 2016. Predicting what any segment of the tech market will look like five years from now is like forecasting the 2096 US Presidential elections. (I'm voting for Kodos.)

How Apple will become a mobile carrier (GigaOM)

Famed blues guitarist "strategic advisor" Whitey Bluestein claims Apple is about to sell mobile wireless services directly to its iPad and iPhone customers. He then laid down an astonishingly funkadelic bass groove that I've been humming all week long, to the annoyance of everyone around me.

B.S. detector reading: KABOOM! Wow, good thing I keep a backup detector in my desk, because the first one is toast. "Apple will strike wholesale deals with several mobile operators so that Apple can provide wireless service directly to its customers, as Apple Mobile," Bluestein claims, ignoring three different Apple shades of Apple reality in one Apple sentence.

Look, there's no question that dealing with wireless service providers is one of the worst parts of owning an iPhone or 3G iPad. Imagine that owning a car meant it ran out of gas at random and without warning, or that it couldn't drive to certain areas of the country in the first place, and even with those irritating limitations you endured monthly chain-whip floggings at the gas station to sustain the privilege of driving your car.

AT&T in particular has earned every last bit of enmity its customers (and former customers) feel toward it. Recent remarks from its CEO suggest the company's only regret is it didn't figure out how to overcharge for data services sooner than it did. "You lie awake at night worrying about what is that which will disrupt your business model [...] If you're using iMessage, you're not using one of our messaging services, right? That's disruptive to our messaging revenue stream." These are actual words AT&T's CEO said, presumably right before doing donuts in his Ferrari in a parking lot that used to be an Indian burial ground.

I don't know about you, but I'm finding it difficult to sympathise with a company that charges about (back of the envelope math) $1.60 per kilobyte for data related to sending SMS texts. But does that mean Apple's going to swoop in and rescue its users from these digital highwaymen? Not a chance. Let's dismantle Whitey's groovetastic bass line phrase by phrase.

"Apple will strike wholesale deals with several mobile operators" -BZZT! Nope. Mobile operators are already milking more money directly from their customers than Apple's going to be willing to throw at the likes of AT&T and Verizon. And even the dumbest of wireless providers still has to be smart enough to know that letting Apple wedge itself between them and iPhone users would be a last, well-deserved nail in the coffin of companies that like to pretend they're anything other than digital plumbers.

"Apple can provide wireless service directly to its customers" -BZZT! Name one possible benefit to Apple if it does this. The company would have to hire loads of support people to answer (and endure) the usual questions and tirades from customers dissatisfied with their wireless service. Instead of being able to do what it's done for the past five years -- shrug and deflect blame for terrible service on the carriers, where it usually belongs -- Apple would have to shoulder the burden (and cost) associated with users bellowing into their iPhones in the scarce seconds between dropped calls.

A deal the carriers would never go for, coupled with one of the top five worst strategic decisions Apple could possibly make? Sure, why not? Other than being the dumbest idea I've heard in months, I don't see any downsides!

That's it for the rumors this week. By this time next Monday, we'll know the precise dimensions of the next iPhone's mute switch, the launch date for Apple's VHS/DVD combo player, and exactly how much of the tablet market the iPad will hold in 2018.

Rumor Roundup, Episode 3: Your parts are leaking again originally appeared on TUAW - The Unofficial Apple Weblog on Mon, 07 May 2012 08:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Rumor Roundup Episode 2: Is Apple doomed or not? Make up your minds!

  By Chris Rawson | April 30, 2012 - 1:30 pm | Uncategorized
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This past week was relatively quiet as far as Apple-related rumors go. In the wake of Apple's latest quarterly earnings release, it seems there was enough real news to keep everyone occupied that Apple "analysts" didn't have to go around making things up off the tops of their heads like they usually do. That's not to say that some analysts didn't provide us with plenty of fresh manure this past week, because they most certainly did.

Rumor: iPhoto '12 for Mac coming this summer with features from iOS (AppleInsider)

"Anonymous sources" spoke with Dutch website Apple Weetjes and claimed that Jony Ive will be featured on cereal boxes starting this summer. Actually, the real claim is that iPhoto '12 will be released this summer with several design cues taken from the recently released iOS version of iPhoto.

B.S. detector reading: 9/10. Whenever a non-U.S. website most of the rest of us have never heard of comes out with a rumor like this, the smart money is on it being completely made up. While I wouldn't be surprised to see the next version of iPhoto continue the blending of OS X and iOS design elements, rumor sites are notoriously bad at predicting Apple's software release schedules.

As one example, over the past three years I've lost track of how many times people have tried to convince us that iWork updates were right around the corner. Meanwhile, the current version of OS X's iWork suite is older than any of the iPhone models Apple sells today.

Apple courts EPIX for upcoming TV: sources (Reuters)

This one starts out believable and seemingly well-sourced, and Reuters is usually reputable. Apple has supposedly been in negotiations with EPIX to get streaming rights for films owned by Lionsgate, MGM, and Paramount. That part I believe. But...

B.S. detector reading: 7/10. Reuters (or its source) goes off the rails when it claims this content negotiation deal has something to do with Apple's long-rumored (but never seen outside an analyst's fever dreams) HDTV set. The source claims that while the major focus of the proposed deal was the Apple TV, it could also apply to "upcoming devices that stream content" -- which is where either Reuters or its source breaks out the Jump to Conclusions Mat and assumes that means an Apple HDTV.

Loads of people have assumed Apple will build an HDTV, citing "evidence" that ranges from mildly plausible to more ridiculously contrived than the Loch Ness Monster photos. Far fewer people have actually sat down and thought about how an HDTV would actually benefit Apple. We're talking about a big, heavy product that's expensive to make, expensive to ship, expensive to store, and has razor-thin profit margins. Plus, people don't replace their HDTVs every year, or even every few years.

No matter how "cool" people think an Apple-branded HDTV might be, I haven't seen one person make a convincing argument for how such a device could actually make Apple money. Until that happens, any whisper of an Apple HDTV in any rumor earns an automatic 7/10 reading from the B.S. detector.

Surprisingly, that was pretty much it for Apple product rumors this week. But the tea leaf reading doesn't stop at the stuff Apple builds, especially around the turn of the financial quarter. This week, the rumormongers mostly busied themselves with predicting Apple's unrivalled ascendancy or its impending doom -- sometimes both at the same time, as we'll see.

Analyst now says Apple will be a $1 trillion company...next year (9to5 Mac)

An analyst from Topeka Capital Markets ("World Famous... in Topeka!") claims Apple will hit a market cap of -- pinky to lip -- one trillion dollars sometime in 2013. For reference, as of this writing Apple's market cap stands at just under $564 billion.

B.S. detector reading: 8/10. Apple's past two financial quarters have been its best ever by several metrics, but over the past five months its market cap has grown by "only" $100 billion. For Apple to almost double its worth as a company over the next year or so would require financial performance that even Apple itself doesn't expect to turn in; the company's guidance for the next financial quarter was so conservative that analysts sounded more than a little bit freaked out during its last conference call.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple top the trillion dollar mark one of these years, but I'm not betting on 2013.

Apple iPad to dominate tablet market through 2016 (BGR)

Forrester Research looked into its crystal ball and decided the iPad will rule the tablet market for at least the next four years. Supposedly 375 million tablets will be sold in 2016, and 199 million of those will be iPads.

B.S. detector reading: 10/10. Predicting what will happen in the tech sector is like predicting the weather. The farther out your forecast, the greater the probability you're just making it up as you go along. I don't trust my local weather forecast past 72 hours, and I definitely don't trust tech predictions beyond 12 months -- most of these guys are the same jokers who predicted the iPad would be an epic flop, after all.

While the iPad doesn't really have any credible competition now, who knows if that will stay true four or five years down the road? And another thing: can all the factories in China even crank out almost 200 million iPads in a single year? They're having enough trouble keeping up with current demand.

The biggest limiting factor on the iPad's success today is suppliers' ability to keep up with demand; that's why Apple "only" sold 12 million of them last quarter. Apple's going to need the equivalent of 5.5 more Foxconns to make 200 million iPads a year. I just hope that doesn't mean we end up with 5.5 more Mike Daiseys, too.

And now, for the dumbest Apple analysis of the week:

Apple = Sony (Forrester Research)

Forrester Research CEO George Colony trots out a familiar trope, that Apple is nothing without Jobs. Over the past few years this has become just as worn out and overused as any of the other deadly clichés analysts tend to substitute for rational thought whenever Apple's involved, but it's only gotten worse since last October. "Apple will decline in the post Steve Jobs era," Colony says. "Apple's momentum will carry it for 24-48 months."

B.S. detector reading: Off-scale high for several billion reasons. The first several billion reasons all have George Washington's face on them. These first two financial quarters following Steve Jobs's unfortunate passing have been the most successful in Apple's history. The only company that's ever turned in better performance than Apple's past two fiscal quarters is Exxon-Mobil, a company that sells a product which is the life's blood of modern civilization.

The world needs oil to function. It doesn't need iPhones or iPads, yet one of the biggest problems facing Apple today is it quite literally has more money than it knows what to do with. "Um, a stockholder dividend, I guess," is the best idea the company came up with (but still a better idea than "Buy Twitter").

Yet for some reason, guys like George Colony have no faith in Tim Cook or the rest of Apple's management team -- all of them, it must be said, hand-picked by Steve Jobs, and all of them running the company de facto over the past few years as Jobs struggled with his medical issues.

But here's the most astonishing part of George Colony's prediction of Apple's "decline": it contradicts his own company's research. Remember about eight paragraphs back, when we found out Forrester Research said the iPad would dominate the tablet market for the next five years? That in 2016, Apple would be selling almost six times as many iPads as it does today? Apparently Forrester Research's own CEO didn't bother to read that report, because he's claiming almost the exact opposite of what his company has "researched" regarding Apple's future performance.

If Forrester's own CEO doesn't take his company's research seriously, why should anyone else?

That's it for this week's rumors and "analysis" about the world's most successful corporation. The week ahead looks slow for real news, so it's a safe bet we'll be hearing lots more about the iPad mini, Apple HDTV, and more products every bit as mythical as Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, and "sources in the Asian supply chain."

Rumor Roundup Episode 2: Is Apple doomed or not? Make up your minds! originally appeared on TUAW - The Unofficial Apple Weblog on Mon, 30 Apr 2012 08:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Rumor Roundup, Episode 1: ‘iPhone 5′ Home button and more nonsense

  By Chris Rawson | April 25, 2012 - 1:30 am | iPad, iPhone
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Welcome to the inaugural session of TUAW's weekly Rumor Roundup. Anyone who follows Apple-related news long enough soon discovers that an entire cottage industry of "analysts" has sprung up in the company's wake. These guys come out of nowhere claiming to have inside information on what's soon coming out of the secret underground labs beneath Cupertino -- and their predictions are almost invariably wrong. Sometimes laughably so.

Over the years we've swung between reporting these rumors with a straight face, just like many other sites, or not reporting on them at all. The first road leads to embarrassment; I'll never forgive myself for taking DigiTimes seriously on anything, ever. The second road leads to dozens of emails every week from readers confused about why we haven't reported on something that's all over the other sites they read.

That's what this Rumor Roundup is all about. These are the stories we might have let slip through the cracks before, simply because we considered them so packed solid with B.S. that they just weren't worth the effort. Most of the stories that show up in the Rumor Roundup still aren't good for much other than pointing at them and laughing -- and there will be lots of that sort of thing.

On to the rumors. Fire up your B.S. detectors, because this past week has been chock full of the usual mythical suspects (none of which, it must be stressed, have ever come within five time zones of being confirmed to exist): the Apple HDTV, iPad mini, iPhone nano, and the super-thin Liquidmetal T-1000 iPhone Grande with 4-inch holographic Tupac screen.

If you've been paying attention, these are the same nonexistent products that dominated the rumor scene for all of 2011. Here we are in mid-2012, still with no indication that any of these products exist at all. And does it strike anyone else as supremely unimaginative that most of these rumors revolve around size? A smaller iPhone -- no wait, a bigger one! And a smaller iPad! And a great big TV! Yawn.

Rumors of an iPad mini swirl in China (Kotaku)

I love the "swirl" reference in the headline, because it reminds me of a commode -- which is probably where this rumor came from. A Chinese site I guarantee you've never heard of claims that the long-rumored iPad mini will launch in the third quarter of this year, with prices ranging from US$249 to $299.

B.S. detector reading: 9/10. "Leaks" like this from Asian sites are almost always wrong, and this one is made even more unbelievable by the fact that those prices are in the neighborhood of what Apple charges for the mid- and high-end iPod touch models. As for the iPad mini itself, we've heard so many conflicting rumors about this thing that by now the only source you should believe is Tim Cook's hands holding one onstage.

Release of 'iPad mini' from Apple viewed as 'question of when, not if' (AppleInsider)

This has all the hallmarks of a terrible and ultimately worthless rumor. Some analyst you've never heard of from some firm you've also never heard of makes a bold claim without a shred of evidence, and it's one he can easily back out of if it never comes true. Which it won't.

B.S. detector reading: 10/10. This is a classic example of a rumor that manages to say absolutely nothing, but in the most excited tones possible. "Apple might do this! Maybe! Or it might not! I dunno, but either way I get paid, suckers."

Apple job opening hints at continued 3D technology in iOS (9to5 Mac)

A job posting on Apple's site could point to integration of 3D features in a future iPhone. Or not, as 9to5 Mac itself points out.

B.S. detector reading: 6/10. Apple is obviously looking for someone knowledgable in 3D tech, but extrapolating what that means for future products is pretty much impossible. And can't the 3D fad just die already? Please?

Apple working on new power management technology for future Macs (AppleInsider)

Another story sourced from an Apple job posting. This one makes the bold claim that Apple is investigating ways of improving power management and battery life in its Macs.

B.S. detector reading: 0/10. I mean, come on -- imagine the exact opposite scenario. "Apple poaches Flash Player engineers, investigates ways to make its laptops run batteries flat in five minutes."

Apple plots wireless server hubs at Genius Bars for users to temporarily store, sync content for iOS device replacements (9to5 Mac)

According to "sources," Apple is testing ways of mirroring iOS device backups from iCloud onto in-store servers to streamline the process of exchanging faulty devices at Genius Bars. The system reportedly won't go into wide deployment until late 2013.

B.S. detector reading: 5/10. While this does sound like something Apple could plausibly want to implement, the fact that this unnamed source supposedly leaked info from within Apple's strictly guarded citadel is a red flag. So is the deployment date, which is so far off that we could easily forget all about it if this never actually happens.

Apple predicted to discontinue 17-inch MacBook Pro (Mac Rumors)

Some analyst says the 17-inch MacBook Pro isn't selling very well, so Apple's going to give it the axe. Of course, Apple doesn't break down its sales numbers by individual models, so this "analysis" is at best an educated guess. At worst, it's exactly like hundreds of other analyst predictions regarding Apple: completely uneducated, wild-ass speculation.

B.S. detector reading: 10/10. The Apple of the past 10 years only discontinues product lines under two circumstances: when it has something better as a replacement (iPod mini --> iPod nano), or when sales are just tanking hard (Xserve). With product margins as high as those Apple gets from its Macs, sales have to get pretty freaking low before Apple stops making money on them; the Mac Pro is still hanging around even though Apple sells more iPhones in one day than the number of Mac Pros it'll sell in a year.

Apple's 'iTV' to dominate high-end TV market while other vendors are in 'crisis mode' (BGR)

A nonexistent product will dominate an industry Apple's shown no sign of taking seriously? Tell me more! What's your source? A consumer survey and some analysts? Never mind. Move along, nothing to see here, no matter what brand of TV it's on.

B.S. detector reading: 8/10. When even 9to5 Mac is starting to disbelieve the Apple HDTV fairy tale, things aren't looking good for this perennial and worn-out rumor.

Redesigned Liquidmetal iPhone may debut at WWDC in June (BGR)

Another Asian source claims the next iPhone will be redesigned with a Liquidmetal case. If that rumor sounds familiar, it should, because like most of the rumors on this list, it's a re-run.

B.S. detector reading: 8/10. This is a malodorous combination of a sketchy source from South Korea and a rehashed rumor that's already failed to materialize.

Apple's next iPhone launch could be most important in smartphone history (BGR)

An analyst who apparently has no recollection of the year 2007 claims the next iPhone launch will be the most important launch ever. His evidence? Well, he doesn't really have any.

B.S. detector reading: Off scale high. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence; when you don't provide any evidence whatsoever, your credibility deserves an old-fashioned boot to the bum. And that headline might have been the most hyperbolic in smartphone headline history.

Next-Generation iPhone to Use Thinner In-Cell Technology for Multi-Touch Display? (Mac Rumors)

This rumor has it all. Analysts, Asian supply chains, and "occasionally-reliable Digitimes" (sic). If by "occasionally reliable" you mean "hasn't said one accurate thing since early 2011," then sure. Otherwise, the (sic) stands.

B.S. detector reading: Off scale high due to inclusion of Digitimes as a source. Regardless of whether Apple is planning on using this technology or not, the perfect storm of terrible sources makes this story about as easy to swallow as Jurassic fruitcake.

Entry-level 'iPhone nano' again rumored to launch this year (BGR)

China Times cites unnamed sources within the Asian supply chain claiming the long-rumored so-called "iPhone nano" is in production. "No really. This time for sure. We promise."

B.S. detector reading: 10/10. No one has ever come up with a credible form factor or compelling reason why Apple should bother creating this imaginary product. Also, any report citing "unnamed sources within the Asian supply chain" is about as well-sourced as me just asking my greyhound what Apple's up to. "What's that, girl? Apple's building an iPhone shuffle now? Okay, I'll run with it, but if you're wrong again, no steak for a week."

More mockups make the case for a 4-inch iPhone (9to5 Mac)

Reader-supplied mockups "make the case" for Apple changing the iPhone's screen size. Note that we made mockups of our own over a year ago, yet the iPhone's screen is still 3.5 inches. Odd. It's almost like one of the world's best industrial designers isn't paying attention to the Internet and is sticking with his own ideas instead.

B.S. detector reading: 6/10. As we said 14 months ago, Apple may well change the size of the iPhone's display someday. But doing so comes with so many potential pitfalls and disadvantages that the company needs a more compelling reason than "Gee, if only our real-world product looked even half as terrible as all these hastily-Photoshopped mockups."

Chip delays point to next-gen iPhone launch around October (Ars Technica)

Ars Technica is almost always on the more credible end of the Apple news spectrum, and the site doesn't disappoint this time. Citing a report from Qualcomm, a big-name component supplier whose products are actually fully relevant to the iPhone, Ars Technica claims the next iPhone probably won't launch before October due to shortages of Qualcomm's cellular baseband chips. Those are kind of important, because without them there's no Phone in iPhone.

B.S. detector reading: 0/10. I don't doubt Ars' source or the veracity of its report, and the site helpfully notes that Apple was probably aiming for an October launch in the first place. No credible reports have arisen pointing to a midsummer iPhone refresh this year, so a "delay" to October shouldn't surprise anyone.

Rumor: iPhone 5 Home Buttons Appear for Sale (AppleBitch)

In what must constitute the least exciting parts leak all year, subtly different Home buttons have appeared on a Chinese supplier site. Rather than two small tabs jutting out from the central circle, these new Home buttons have a big, rounded rectangle flange around them. Excited yet? No? What if I told you it's for the iPhone 5?!? Still no? Eh, I tried.

B.S. detector reading: 5/10. Who knows what product these buttons are destined for? More to the point, who cares? The only rise this particular rumor got out of me was, "Maybe this is finally the end of those stupid 'Next iPhone won't have a Home button' rumors."

Apple CEO Tim Cook spotted at video game designer Valve's headquarters (AppleInsider)

Supposedly Tim Cook showed up at Valve earlier this week, and that set off a storm of speculation across the Internet. What could it mean? What could it mean?!

B.S. detector reading: 10/10. After hearing the Apple CEO was on their turf, Valve co-founder Gabe Newell and several other employees emailed back and forth trying to figure out who met with Tim Cook. It turns out no one did, because Tim Cook was never at Valve. I don't know who fed that particular line to AppleInsider, but I hope the site now realizes that the Cook is a lie.

That's a full week's worth of the Apple blogosphere's rumor offal. Come back next Monday for more exciting tales of imaginary and often nonsensical products, brought to you from the finest, drunkest analysts that money can buy.

Rumor Roundup, Episode 1: 'iPhone 5' Home button and more nonsense originally appeared on TUAW - The Unofficial Apple Weblog on Tue, 24 Apr 2012 20:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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How to get AirPlay working when Apple TV is hooked up via Ethernet

  By Chris Rawson | April 24, 2012 - 2:00 pm | Uncategorized
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When I got a new Apple TV, I decided to plug it directly into my Time Capsule via Ethernet to lighten some of the bandwidth load on my home wireless network. My Wi-Fi bandwidth has always been pretty lackluster with my first-gen Time Capsule, even though every device connecting to it is 802.11n-compatible, and adding something as bandwidth-gluttonous as an Apple TV streaming 1080p video from my Mac was only going to make things worse. I guessed that plugging in via Ethernet would roughly halve the bandwidth requirements for streaming to the Apple TV, and checking around with some of my more networking-savvy friends confirmed this. *

Within a couple of days, I noticed some really odd behavior. When using the Apple TV interface on my HDTV, streaming music or other media from my Mac worked without any issues. However, trying to stream media from my Mac to the Apple TV via iTunes on my Mac didn't work at all. The Apple TV showed up in iTunes' list of available AirPlay devices, but selecting it brought up a "Connecting" box that never went away. Trying to set things up via the Remote app on my iOS devices didn't work either.

It didn't make sense to me that streaming would work just fine if initiated from the Apple TV, but not at all from anywhere else. Some Googling around got me a solution to the issue: disabling IPv6 on the Mac via the network settings in System Preferences finally got AirPlay working from all devices.

If you're on a version of OS X older than Lion, it's easy to turn IPv6 off.

  • Go into the Network pane in System Preferences
  • Select AirPort in the list on the left
  • Click "Advanced"
  • Go to the TCP/IP tab
  • Set "Configure IPv6" to Off
  • Click "OK"
  • Click "Apply"

OS X Lion got rid of the "Off" setting in the GUI, but the Terminal app in the Finder's Utilities folder comes to the rescue (as always). Open Terminal and input the following two commands exactly to disable IPv6 in OS X Lion:

networksetup -setv6off ethernet

networksetup -setv6off wi-fi

If you have an advanced network setup that requires IPv6 to be enabled for some reason, you're probably better off just unplugging the Apple TV and letting it connect via Wi-Fi. Most users won't run into any problems if they disable IPv6, however, so if you're in a niche like mine where plugging the Apple TV in via Ethernet is a better fit for your network, hopefully this tip helped you out.

* I confirmed this with first-hand testing, as well. When plugged into my Time Capsule via Ethernet, a 1.38 GB movie loaded in its entirety on the Apple TV in exactly 7 minutes, 30 seconds. Tests loading movies of the same 1.38 GB size repeatedly failed when the Apple TV connected over Wi-Fi, because roughly midway through iTunes Home Sharing inevitably decided to stop working. I never experienced this problem when connected over Ethernet.

In both cases, Time Machine was disabled on my Mac, and no other devices were making heavy use of the network.

The "best" result my Apple TV achieved when streaming over Wi-Fi was loading roughly 40 percent of a 1.38 GB movie -- after over 12 minutes -- before iTunes Home Sharing decided to die on me yet again. So at least in my case, connecting the Apple TV via Ethernet makes way more sense than Wi-Fi.

How to get AirPlay working when Apple TV is hooked up via Ethernet originally appeared on TUAW - The Unofficial Apple Weblog on Tue, 24 Apr 2012 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fast Company on the ‘wilderness years’ of Steve Jobs

  By Chris Rawson | April 18, 2012 - 2:00 pm | Uncategorized
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Brent Schlender of Fast Company has written a great long-form article on Steve Jobs's so-called "wilderness years" -- the period between when Jobs was ousted from Apple in the mid 80s and his return in the late 90s. Many people (wrongly) tend to think of this period as Jobs sort of aimlessly drifting until his triumphant return to Apple, but Schlender convincingly argues that it was during this time that Jobs grew into the sort of businessman who could not only bring Apple back from the brink of bankruptcy, but transform it into the world's most valuable company.

Jobs was indeed busy during that decade, founding NeXT and helping to transform Pixar into a giant force within the entertainment industry. While Walter Isaacson's biography of Jobs goes into the details of this period of Jobs's life, Isaacson seems to treat both NeXT and Pixar as diversions or distractions from the bigger goal: Apple. Schlender instead argues that Steve Jobs brought the same devotion to those two companies that he brought to Apple, and his work at both companies made him into exactly the CEO Apple needed.

Schlender's article is quite long, but it's a very good read. If you can, set aside some time and read the whole thing.

Fast Company on the 'wilderness years' of Steve Jobs originally appeared on TUAW - The Unofficial Apple Weblog on Wed, 18 Apr 2012 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Arsegate: Does using the iPad cause hemorrhoids?

  By Chris Rawson | April 1, 2012 - 3:25 pm | iPad
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It's bad enough that the new iPad causes people to burn their hands, threatens to destroy its own battery in a shower of hot lithium if you leave it plugged in overnight, makes images on the web look terrible, and consumes all of your data faster than you can say "not compatible with Australia's 4G network." Those are all serious issues that every potential iPad owner must face, but it gets worse. According to research from proctologist Dr. Rodrigo Fulano, announced today, using the iPad may cause you to develop hemorrhoids.

"We've known for a while that sitting on a Western-style 'throne' toilet for excessive lengths of time can lead to hemorrhoids," Dr. Fulano says. "But iPad usage accelerates the process. People will sit there as if in a trance, sometimes for as long as half an hour, playing Angry Birds or reading news articles rather than [performing actions appropriate to the setting]. All the while they're putting incredible strain on veins and arteries that, once inflamed, develop into hemorrhoids."

Dr. Fulano hasn't just pulled this supposition out of thin air. His research shows a correlation between the introduction of the original iPad and an explosion in the number of patients suffering from hemorrhoids. He predicts the problem will only get worse with the newest iPad. "Now that the iPad's display renders text that looks like it's printed on paper, it means people are going to spend a lot more time reading in the bathroom. Also, the fact that this new iPad is so much heavier than the old one means additional strain on [relevant anatomical areas]. Those two factors put together lead directly to a rise in the incidence of hemorrhoids."

Inspired by his research, a class action lawsuit has formed demanding compensation for medical bills and "pain and suffering" incurred as a result of excessive iPad use while in the restroom. "Apple knowingly provided its customers with a product that can directly lead to health issues through excessive use," the suit alleges. "Apple does not warn its users of the consequences of excessive iPad use under certain circumstances, and it should therefore provide compensation to those affected."

Dr. Fulano has recommendations for how Apple can immediately address "Arsegate." "Apple should give users the option to erect a 'geo-fence' around their bathrooms and issue regular warnings at five minute intervals to prevent excessive iPad usage in that area. It's a bit ribald, but the old folk wisdom is quite true in this case: people really do need to either [go] or get off the pot."

Until or unless Apple addresses the problem with a software update, you can easily avoid the consequences of Arsegate by simply leaving the iPad behind when you go to the loo. Although admittedly it can be quite relaxing to have a nice sit n' read first thing in the morning, the consequences can be dire; over time, the iPad can quite literally become a pain in the arse.

Apple has yet to comment on the issue.

Arsegate: Does using the iPad cause hemorrhoids? originally appeared on TUAW - The Unofficial Apple Weblog on Sun, 01 Apr 2012 10:25:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Daily iPad App: Mactracker

  By Chris Rawson | March 30, 2012 - 7:00 pm | iPad
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We featured Mactracker as a Daily Mac App in 2011, and an iPhone version of the app has been around for a few years (with comparatively more sporadic updates). Mactracker is essentially the history of Apple hardware all in one app, or at least Apple from 1984 onward. It's a database containing detailed information on every Mac since the Macintosh 128k, every iPod and iOS device ever released, and even the weirder stuff Apple dabbled in during the 1990s like the QuickTake camera.

More than just a trip down Mac memory lane, Mactracker also provides details on things like weight and dimensions, processor speed, storage, RAM, and even some benchmark data for several devices. It can be a great troubleshooting asset, or an instant source of info on what kind of RAM or hard drive your Mac will accept.

The iPhone version of Mactracker recently got an update to version 2.0, and with that update the free app is now universal, with a brand-new iPad version. If you're familiar with the Mac version there won't be many surprises here, but the expanded screen real estate on the iPad makes Mactracker much more pleasant to use than the iPhone version.

Mactracker for iPad is fully optimised for the new Retina Display, and it looks great. About the only feature it's missing is one the Mac version has: a place to input information on models you own. That's a very handy feature on Mactracker for Mac, and it's one I'd love to see added to the iPad version at some point.

If you're interested in the minutiae of Macs gone by, Mactracker has always been a must-have. Now that this great new iPad version is out, it's even better. Go get it.

Daily iPad App: Mactracker originally appeared on TUAW - The Unofficial Apple Weblog on Fri, 30 Mar 2012 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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How to control Apple TV with a third-party remote

  By Chris Rawson | March 30, 2012 - 6:00 pm | Uncategorized
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Here's a cool Apple TV feature that you probably didn't know about, particularly if you're like me and the third-generation Apple TV is your first foray into Apple's "hobby" device. In addition to the pre-packaged and somewhat spartan remote and Apple's more full-featured Remote app for iOS devices, it turns out you can control your Apple TV with virtually any third-party remote control. We first wrote about this feature about a year and a half ago, but we're guessing there are a lot of Apple TV newbies out there since the recent update, so it's worth a refresher.

On your Apple TV, head into Settings > General > Remotes. There, you'll find an option called "Learn Remote." From there, it's a simple matter of following onscreen instructions; press and hold the button on your remote that you want to have control the corresponding function you see on your TV.

In addition to the basic navigation functions, you also have the option to program more advanced playback functions. This will allow you to set up fast-forward, rewind, next chapter, and a handful of other functions on your third-party remote.

The whole procedure is pretty drop-dead simple, but results will vary depending on your remote. I didn't have any issues setting up the basic navigation functions on the remote that came with my surround sound system, but no matter what I tried I couldn't get the playback controls to pair up with my Apple TV. At the very least, having the basic nav functions let me toss the standard Apple TV remote in a drawer, so that's something.

This is one feature that Apple doesn't go out of its way to advertise, but like many other things Apple's done, I now find myself wishing everything worked this way. If my TV had a programming function like this, I could finally get down to one remote control without having to shell out extra money for a universal remote.

How to control Apple TV with a third-party remote originally appeared on TUAW - The Unofficial Apple Weblog on Fri, 30 Mar 2012 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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